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Proving History: Bayes's Theorem and the Quest for the Historical Jesus
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Almost all experts agree that the Jesus of the Bible is a composite of myth, legend, and some historical evidence. So what can we know about the real Jesus?
In this in-depth discussion of New Testament scholarship and the challenges of history as a whole, historian Richard C Carrier proposes Bayes's Theorem, which deals with probabilities under conditions of uncertainty, as a solution to the problem of establishing reliable historical criteria. He demonstrates that valid historical methods can be described by, and reduced to, the logic of Bayes's Theorem. Conversely, he argues that any method that cannot be reduced to this theorem is invalid and should be abandoned.
Almost all experts agree that the Jesus of the Bible is a composite of myth, legend, and some historical evidence. So what can we know about the real Jesus?
In this in-depth discussion of New Testament scholarship and the challenges of history as a whole, historian Richard C Carrier proposes Bayes's Theorem, which deals with probabilities under conditions of uncertainty, as a solution to the problem of establishing reliable historical criteria. He demonstrates that valid historical methods can be described by, and reduced to, the logic of Bayes's Theorem. Conversely, he argues that any method that cannot be reduced to this theorem is invalid and should be abandoned.